Drop in Kansas Realtors seen

Posted by Kansas RealEstateRama

October 19, 2007

Rebound in sales expected in state by spring 2009

The number of Realtors in Kansas is expected to decline about 5 percent in 2008 as the industry copes with a slowdown, a real estate expert said Tuesday.

Jeff Carson, president of the Kansas Association of Realtors, predicted a decrease of about 500 real estate agents from the 10,000 working in Kansas. And, he said, there won’t be as many new people coming into the industry as in past years.

About 600 real estate professionals are in Topeka this week for the Kansas Association of Realtors’ annual convention, which began Monday and concludes this afternoon at the Kansas Expocentre’s Maner Conference Centre.

While some areas of the state have seen declines in real estate sales, especially in new home construction, Wichita is showing signs of strength, Carson said.

The airline sector has been creating jobs, improving the Wichita economy and adding strength to its real estate market, he said.

Carson, of Kansas City, Kan., who works in Shawnee, said speculators who built homes in the Fort Riley area are having to wait longer than expected to sell their properties.

While troops are coming to the Fort Riley area, they aren’t coming as fast as some had hoped, he said.

“There were a lot of spec builders,” Carson said. “Now they are wondering if they jumped in too fast. Fort Riley has seen some growth, but not as fast as expected. There’s lots of supply on the market.”

Carson, who has worked in real estate for 18 years, was elected Monday night as president of the Kansas Association of Realtors, replacing Carol Mangan, of Coffeyville.

Carson said the Kansas real estate market hasn’t experienced the kinds of declines seen in California, Nevada and Florida. But that doesn’t mean Kansas won’t see a “trickle in effect.”

Kansas, like the rest of the country, has seen increases in home foreclosures.

The free-flow of easy credit is gone. Lenders have tightened up. Agents are advised to double check whether buyers are really pre-approved because lending guidelines have changed — which is slowing down the market, Carson said.

There is a perception held by buyers on the fence that if they wait a little longer they will get an even lower price for their next property, he said.

But how long is too long to wait?

Consultants told him the real estate market is midway through a 36-month cycle, he said.

“We should see improvements in late summer 2008 and a rebound by spring 2009. Spring is always a great time to buy,” he said. “There is plenty of supply out there. You have a good chance at getting a good home at a great price.”

He said a lot of the old-timers in the real estate market have weathered tough times before, including in the mid-1980s when interest rates were more than 15 percent.

But for many people in the industry, this market is the first real slowdown they have ever experienced.

Nevertheless, he said, real estate sales will never stop completely because people are always getting married, divorced, changing jobs and dying.

“There are always reasons people have to buy or sell,” he said.

By Michael Hooper, The Capital-journal

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